- A Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russia isn't on the cards until 2025, says Jake Sullivan.
- Russia will make advances in the "coming period" even though US aid to Ukraine is coming, he said.
- "You can't instantly flip the switch," Sullivan said.
Ukraine may have gotten their long-awaited US aid last month, but a counteroffensive against Russia won't be on the cards until 2025, says US national security advisor Jake Sullivan.
Sullivan was speaking at The Financial Times Weekend Festival in Washington on Saturday when he offered his assessment of the Ukraine war.
Ukraine, Sullivan said, will still be able to "hold the line" and withstand Russian attacks through 2024 with the aid that's coming from the US. But Sullivan said he still expects "Russian advances in the coming period" as it will take some time for US aid to reach Ukraine.
"You can't instantly flip the switch," Sullivan told festival attendees.
A counteroffensive, where Ukraine can "move forward to recapture the territory that the Russians have taken from them," will only take place in 2025, Sullivan said.
Ukraine's defense ministry didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from BI sent outside regular business hours.
Sullivan's remarks on the war come at a precarious time for Ukraine. Besides dealing with repeated calls from the GOP to halt US aid, the country is also fending off an invigorated Russian army.
"The army is actually now larger — by 15 percent — than it was when it invaded Ukraine," US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli said in a House Armed Services Committee hearing on April 10.
"The severity of this moment cannot be overstated: If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine could lose," said Cavoli, who is also NATO's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe.
Last month, the House of Representatives finally approved more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine. The bill was delayed for months due to staunch GOP opposition. In fact, when the bill was passed on April 20, 112 Republicans voted against it.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the incoming aid will provide little immediate relief for the Ukrainians.
This, the ISW said, is because the Russians are still able to "take advantage of the limited window before the arrival of new US aid" to ramp up their attacks.
"The frontline situation will therefore likely continue to deteriorate in that time," the US think tank wrote.